One of many superior analytics statistics that has gained traction in recent times is win likelihood. The intent right here is to offer context on how seemingly a given group is to win the sport.
What’s cool is that win likelihood may be calculated for each play, permitting for an evaluation of which performs had the largest affect on the sport. That is calculated as win likelihood added which is created by subtracting the win likelihood on the play earlier than from the win likelihood on the present play.
Utilizing this calculation, we are able to then look at simply how expensive a given play was. For the sport between the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders, essentially the most memorable play in some ways was Zach Wilson’s late recreation interception that felt as if all of it however ended the sport.
However did the play truly finish the Jets probabilities or did it simply really feel that manner?
Effectively, in line with WPA, the reply is “it may not have truly ended the sport but it surely may as properly have.” Previous to that play, the Jets had a 48% likelihood of successful the sport. After? Solely 4%. Ouch. Including to that, after that play the Jets highest likelihood of victory by no means exceeded 20%, which is a far cry from the 48% likelihood they began with previous to that throw being tried.