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HomeBaseballJay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 7/25/23

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/25/23


2:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, of us! Welcome to the final July version of my FanGraphs chat
2:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m again from an exhilarating and exhausting Corridor of Fame Induction Weekend in Cooperstown
2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Had a blast there, acquired to do some fairly enjoyable stuff!
2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present
2:04
So that you’re telling me there’s a likelihood: Hello Jay.   I’m going to the Blue Jays vs Angels sport on Saturday.   The place would you set the chances of me seeing Ohtani play, with the commerce deadline shortly approaching?
2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I feel the chances of Ohtani being traded are very low, truthfully
2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I feel Arte is unwilling to commerce him to a different California crew (the Dodgers and Padres come to thoughts) and consider they will make a robust pitch to re-sign him
2:06
Fats Elvis: Evaluating Lance Berkman’s numbers to Fred McGriff, makes me marvel if Lance must be a HOFer. Fred compiled extra, however Lance appears higher on a fee foundation (and OPS+). How do you distinguish the 2?
2:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Each are quick for me. McGriff ranks solely thirty third in JAWS amongst 1B (52.6/36.0/44.3), 9 factors under the usual. Berkman is nineteenth amongst LF (52.0/39.2/45.6) about eight factors under the usual. He did that in over 2000 fewer plate appearances, and is a greater hitter on a fee foundation 9144-134 in OPS+) however he’s not actually a high-peak man relative to the positional commonplace (41.8)
2:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume one subpar selection justifies reducing the bar for one more
2:11
Ron: Your ideas on Julio Urias for ROS….can he proper the ship and get again to considerably constant ace degree?  Dodgers want him to be in October for positive. Thanks
2:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Man, I want I knew. At his greatest,  he’s clearly an excellent pitcher, however we’ve hardly ever seen his greatest this 12 months, He’s been very homer-prone, and has gotten knocked round by a number of sub-.500 groups
2:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The irony is that this would possibly maintain him a Dodger, in the event that they make him a qualifying provide and he makes use of that to get a second likelihood to set his market
2:13
Adam B.: Inform us about one thing else you noticed within the Corridor’s assortment this weekend which made you glad to see it.
2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Two photographs and accompanying objects which might be new from this spring: a photograph of Ohtani placing out Trout to finish the World Baseball Traditional championship sport, accompanied by Ohtani’s cap:
2:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And the batting helmet of Olivia Pichardo, the primary lady to play for an NCAA Division I crew, Brown College (my alma mater):
2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
2:17
seth r: What’s your favourite exhibit in Cooperstown? I used to be dumbstruck by the sheer quantity of ‘lore’ accessible to the museum curators after I went for Larkin’s induction
2:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I really like the A Complete New Ballgame exhibit, of the stuff from the Seventies onward. So vibrant and diversified. Additionally the Shoebox Recollections exhibit devoted to baseball playing cards.
2:19
Hayes: Hey everybody, am I the one one frightened that Ohtani goes to be insanely overpaid this offseason? Clearly he’s a high 3 hitter( I consider Choose and Yordan are higher) however pitching sensible he’s ranked twenty seventh and twenty sixth in ERA and xERA. His hitting numbers recommend he ought to get round $350m after which his pitching stats recommend he ought to get round $100-$130m. Add that up and your a $450m participant. I’ve heard although that the market may very well be $600m!?. That simply appears excessive to particularly with how frequent pitching accidents are that you could possibly be dropping a pitcher in addition to a hitter if he have been to have Tommy John. Ideas on this?
2:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: his pitching stats have been compromised by his current blister points, which have inflated his ERA. Regardless, whoever indicators him isn’t simply doing a easy mathematical estimate primarily based on his worth — there’s a marquee worth there that’s not accounted for, and whoever indicators him is prone to be the one which values him probably the most extremely past efficiency, primarily for his potential to enhance attendance and rankings.
2:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That mentioned, even the very best gamers don’t are likely to receives a commission on the greenback worth their projections recommend. I feel $600M is a bit excessive however I wouldn’t be stunned at $500M
2:23
Steve: Jay, i observed that the brewers are in first place within the NL central and have a damaging Pythagorean Win Expectancy (-5). How frequent is it for such a crew to win a division? pennant? world collection? Have the latter two ever been finished with a PWE for the season being damaging?
2:29
omar: there’s no means the Orioles would commerce Holliday for Ohtani, proper? is Ohtani’s commerce worth being overstated contemplating he’s solely a 2 month rental?
2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: no means the O’s try this. The factor about Ohtani’s commerce worth is that you just’re including BOTH a participant who’s in all probability going to be your greatest hitter AND a frontline starter, albeit one who would possibly require you juggle your rotation a bit of. His DH-only standing creates some points so far as resting different gamers, however he does prevent a roster spot. Whoever trades for him will virtually definitely overpay in a rational sense, however that’s what it’s going to take to separate your self from the opposite affords when you actually do need him
2:31
Theo be Praised: Many groups with excessive payrolls (NYY, SDP, NYM, and so forth) are doing poorly.  Many with low payrolls (TBR, CIN, BAL, ARI, and so forth) are having surprisingly good years.  Something we are able to study from that?
2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Sure: That’s Baseball, Suyzn.
2:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s at all times a number of handwringing over how a lot cash groups spend, however at greatest it’s an imperfect mechanism to enhance your membership, it doesn’t assure something.
2:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Which doesn’t imply you need to by no means spend large — you’re not going to get or maintain star gamers when you don’t, and that has so much with the way in which followers and even different gamers understand your crew.
2:33
Dave in St Paul: What do you assume Joe Mauers HOF p.c shall be on his time on the poll?
2:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I feel he falls quick this winter, with one thing within the 60-65% vary, however will get in subsequent 12 months.
2:34
Theo be Praised: If the Cubs commerce Bellinger, have they got a legit likelihood to resign him?  That just about by no means occurs, however this circumstance (1 12 months pillow, Boras shopper) looks as if one the place it might, no?
2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It hardly ever occurs, and except Bellinger REALLY preferred his time there I’d be skeptical he could be so inclined. That crew is a number of strikes away from being a powerhouse, and except they make different strikes to persuade him that they’re constructing a contender, I’m unsure why he’d go there except their provide blows the others away.
2:35
Syndergaardengnomes: Good afternoon!  Assume the Mets will commerce Verlander or Scherzer?  Even when they choose up a considerable amount of cash, appears tough to think about an enormous market…
2:36
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical, as a result of i feel the cash and the no-trade clauses and their declining performances (and up to date accidents) will make it very laborious to line up with one other crew
2:37
bringbackpologrounds: Good day Jay. In your pleasant Cooperstown casebook collection, you word that Mookie Betts initiatives to a 63 bWAR on the finish of the season, and his JAWS rating is already first-ballot standing. I feel Betts has a fantastic likelihood to complete with 90-100 bWAR with considerably modest counting stats (2000 hits, 375 HRs)…how will his legacy be considered by the previous crowd/HOF voters on the time?
2:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Even earlier than this stellar season, he projected for simply in need of 2,400 hits and 400 homers by way of ZiPS, which is a bit past what you’re suggesting. I don’t assume it’s actually going to matter what the “previous crowd” thinks — Corridor of Fame voters 10 years from now shall be fairly conscious of how good he’s and doubtless much less connected to milestone numbers as voters of yesteryear.
2:39
Cameron Kear: Jay, What’s occurring with the A’s stadium saga? Haven’t heard something about it shortly. May they keep in Oakland?
2:42
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s additionally some query as as to if the present web site may even match a ballpark, which if it will possibly’t will begin the legislative course of over.
2:44
Brad in Wellfleet: Good day from Nice Level on Blackfish Creek!  Justin Steele…how precisely does he get the outcomes he does with only a 91-93 4-seemer and OK slider?
2:47
Jason: Much like the Berkman query, what would possibly Carlos Delgado want to achieve additional consideration? He was nice for 13 years, got here up in all probability one 12 months in need of 500 homers, and his candidacy was summarily dismissed.
2:50
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I really like Carlos Delgado for his outspokenness on issues that matter, however he’s a bit quick within the corridor division, as a result of regardless of the homers, he didn’t have a ton of worth in different areas of the sport. -26 baserunning runs, -65 fielding runs by way of B-Ref, and so you could have a man who barely cleared 50 WAR and ranks thirty eighth amongst 1B (44.4 /34.5/39.4) with lesser numbers than McGriff. He gained’t even be eligible for Period Committee consideration till after what would have been his 10-year window runs out this winter, and there simply aren’t a ton of men from the sub-5% group who make the leap to the poll with any pace — ask Lou Whitaker.
2:52
Scott: When did Fangraphs first come about? What number of years has it’s been?
2:53
First Place Orioles: I do know this may be filed beneath “means too early to reply” however who do you personally assume is a extra doubtless HoFer – Adley Rutschman or Gunnar Henderson?
2:54
Avatar Jay Jaffe: offhand I’d say it’s Gunnar, as a result of he reached the majors at 21, in comparison with 23 for Adley.
2:54
Jason: Do you assume Dan Quisenberry has any shot on the corridor? Per your one subpar selection doesn’t justify one other, Quisenberry doesn’t appear meaningfully worse than Bruce Sutter. I don’t essentially assume Sutter is undeserving, however I’m wondering if Q has a shot to get in or if the requirements are a bit too excessive for him.
2:58
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t see an opportunity, sorry. I beloved Quisenberry, and whereas his numbers are an excellent match for Sutter when it comes to innings and WAR, and he has a bonus in ERA+ and in R-JAWS (which incorporates WPA), he wasn’t the pioneer that Sutter was — each when it comes to popularizing the split-fingered fastball and in getting used because the save-focused nearer (they’re 56 saves aside in Sutter’s favor). Getting on the poll at this level is especially powerful given the smaller ballots and up to date course of change, and never having large counting stats.
2:58
omg_pwnasaurus: I discover it very tough to get hyped in regards to the HOF anymore when the very best hitter and greatest pitcher of my technology usually are not in whereas the veteran’s committee both elects somebody that they performed with/for that they like and/or they elect somebody simply to make a degree in regards to the PED period.  Maybe the managers whose profession wins/rings have been aligned with that period as effectively must also be penalized then?  All of it appears very arbitrary and at this level has (imo) had the inverse impact of what they appear to be making an attempt to show the place not less than from my perspective, it’s change into far much less attention-grabbing.
2:59
Avatar Jay Jaffe: You don’t should care. The establishment and its processes have their flaws, as does the logic that’s put among the greatest gamers on the skin whereas those that enabled them are in. A few of us are dedicated to doing what we are able to to enhance the scenario and to understand what’s there, nevertheless it’s hardly necessary for each fan to really feel that means.
3:00
J: What would you do when you have been the Cubs proper now? Nonetheless too early to inform or is the small likelihood of successful the division simply not value lacking out on buying and selling Bellinger/Stroman at their peaks?
3:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d be extra inclined to promote as a result of there simply aren’t that many sellers, and as you recommend, these guys are close to peak worth.
3:03
Visitor: Lot of Arenado to the Dodgers rumors flying previous couple of days. Do you could have any concept why the Dodgers would ship out prospects for him after they have Muncy, an on a regular basis DH solely, and plenty of different wants? I’m so confused how this turned a factor.
3:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Muncy hasn’t been fairly the identical participant since his elbow harm, however he does have some positional utility; he can play first, second and third. He may additionally be a commerce candidate if the Dodgers do get Arenado, who could be an improve. IMO, so much is determined by how a lot cash is altering fingers right here, although, as Arenado is owed over $100 million by way of 2027.
3:08
Matt VW: I at all times benefit from the substitute killers collection. Do you could have ideas on what number of (if any) positional killers a crew can carry and nonetheless make the playoffs? Make a deep run within the playoffs?
3:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t assume there’s any set quantity however let’s word that final 12 months’s NL champion Phillies made the midseason checklist at SS, 3B, CF, and RF, although solely the 2 outfield spots completed with lower than 1 WAR, and so they did not less than add Marsh in heart subject to provide themselves a Moist Man
3:11
v2micca: If I set the over/beneath at 7 for the variety of extra Shohei Ohtani sport used objects that shall be featured within the Corridor of Fame from his profession, would you’re taking the over or beneath?
3:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Over, as a result of there shall be one thing on that order in his show case when he’s inducted.
3:11
TKDC: Had been you stunned by the considerably smaller crowd in Cooperstown this weekend? I particularly thought I’d see extra Phillies followers present up.
3:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: No, not likely — and the gang was far lower than the estimate of 10,000 supplied by the Corridor (these items are at all times inflated). With solely two honorees in comparison with 5 – 6 from current years, it was sure to be a smaller turnout. Each gamers spent solely a handful of years with groups that have been inside driving distance, and let’s face it, a large contingent of Phillies followers will eternally be at odds with Rolen for turning down the massive contract extension and occurring to larger success elsewhere.
3:14
Kevin: You mentioned you bought to do some fairly enjoyable stuff in Cooperstown. Inform us extra!
3:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The most important highlights have been going to the Friday afternoon get-together on the Lodge Otesaga in honor of BBWAA Profession Excellence Award winner John Lowe and to the Corridor of Fame plaque gallery cocktail celebration on Saturday night. I had an opportunity at each to speak to a ton of writers I respect, met just a few Corridor of Famers (together with favorites Robin Yount and Jim Thome) and noticed dozens extra (pointedly didn’t shake the hand of 1, ahem), heard some very good issues about my work, caught up with a ton of pals who’re both Cooperstown-based or present up yearly, together with my hosts, and made a “20 Years of JAWS” presentation on the post-induction SABR assembly.
3:18
Marcus: If the Yankees miss the playoffs, is Cashman out of a job?
3:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: No, however I’d wager Boone is.
3:19
jj: I maintain pondering the identical as Hayes above about Ohtani, there must be a reduction inbuilt for the chance of dropping each your greatest hitter and #1 or #2 SP, BUT all it takes is one proprietor to not fear about this danger and his value is thru the roof.
3:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: when you’re sitting round ready for a reduction on Ohtani, you’re going to observe him placed on one other crew’s uniform.
3:19
v2micca: Which crew really making a compelling effort to signal Ohtani this low season would personally shock you probably the most?
3:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Anyone who has a payroll within the decrease half of groups save for the Mariners, plus not less than the White Sox, Astros, and Cardinals from these within the higher half.
3:22
Grand Admiral Braun: Can the Cubs promote Stroman and but nonetheless be in-it and “consumers?”
3:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s doable however they’d should get again some high quality pitching to ensure that that to make sense
3:23
Keith: Dejected Royals fan right here Horrible MLB crew and backside 5 farm system.  What might probably make them aggressive within the subsequent 5 years?
3:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: a brand new regime.
3:24
Marcus: Favourite place to see a band in NYC, previous and current?
3:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I have a tendency to like smaller venues however not too small. I miss CBGB’s and Brownies. Bowery Ballroom (official capability 575) is perhaps my favourite, because it’s well-run, has respectable beer, and so forth — and I’ve been going to that one for over 20 years. Brooklyn Made, which has nice beer and a large stage, is a superb venue however a schlep to get to, and it’s not being booked in addition to it used to. I actually miss Bell Home, which had a number of the identical in its favor however was a lot nearer
3:27
>this man<: Immaculate Grid is probably the most enjoyable I’ve all day typically. Thanks for sharing your outcomes. It’s how I discovered.
3:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I spent a lot time speaking about Immaculate Grid with pals — a few of whom work on the Corridor — this previous weekend.
3:28
Skip: Wait, can I stroll across the Corridor of Fame with beer in hand? That modifications every part!
3:28
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Alas, you’ll be able to’t, except you get invited to the plaque room celebration.
3:28
Kevin: Who would you not less than contemplate voting for at this level on subsequent 12 months’s HOF poll?
3:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: One thing alongside the strains of “everybody I’ve voted for earlier than, plus Beltré, Mauer and Utley”
3:29
Bongo: Is Chas McCormick breaking out?
3:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: His slash line suggests that he’s (.282/.371/.531), however his statcast numbers are much like final 12 months, and he has solely a .237 xBA and .437 xSLG. Beware regression
3:31
Immaculate Griz: Which over 30 participant has the very best likelihood to play their means into HOF competition?
3:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The one which was most notable to me after I did my roundup was Marcus Semien, who’s actually made nice strides currently.
3:31
Dan: Is remainder of profession projections someplace publicly accessible or is it one thing you run internally in service of analysis or an article?
3:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: No, it’s a Szymborski spreadsheet he shared with me, and it’s already old-fashioned.
3:32
Bert: No one appears to be speaking in regards to the Pads’ run differential. Approach larger than SFG and ARI. Their Pythagorean report has them a lot larger. It’s getting late however would a turnaround actually shock you?
3:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Not tremendously. They’ve a number of good gamers underperforming, and have performed higher than their report suggests, although they’re simply 6-16 in one-run video games. Repair first base, work out what’s occurring with Darvish, fortify the bullpen, I can see them having a shot at a playoff spot.
3:34
Skip: I’m heading to Cooperstown in September for the day. Something that’s on the “can’t miss” checklist?
3:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I assume it is determined by how a lot time you’ll be able to spend on the Corridor. The comparatively current displays  — A Complete New Ballgame, Shoebox Treasures, Viva Baseball, Diamond Desires (girls in baseball), and Negro Leagues — are very a lot value catching when you’ve already finished the historic stuff. The Hank Aaron show on the third ground is nice, and the stat-related artifacts on 3 are actually enjoyable, too.
3:37
Bert: Do the underlying stats inform you Kim is taking part in over his head remarkably?
3:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yeah, a bit (.270 AVG vs .246 xBA, .447 SLG vs. .383 xSLG), however his glove and flexibility are key components of his worth
3:38
City Shocker: Will Mookie’s HoF case have any dishonest stink on it from the 2018 Purple Sox signal stealing scheme? Nonetheless a fantastic participant however, coincidence or not, that was his greatest offensive season by far.
3:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I doubt it should have a lot affect. Sure, these is perhaps his greatest offensive numbers — compiled in a hitter-friendly park, allow us to word — however the truth that he’s had different MVP-caliber seasons and has by no means actually had a foul one so far is what’s going to face out to voters
3:42
Colton: I’m positive you’ve been requested this loads of instances and I’ve missed them, however do you could have any robust ideas about tweener-type CF and their HOF candidacy? I’m referring particularly to guys like Lofton, Andruw Jones and Edmonds. All of them performed nice CF and have been stable offensively however appear to not get the love from voters that they could deserve in some respects.
3:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Jones is trending in direction of election. Lofton and Edmonds landed on the poll at a tricky time and fell sufferer to the 5% rule. The latter doesn’t have the defensive metrics that align along with his repute, and his profession counting stats are quick as effectively, so it’s not a shock he went one-and-done. Lofton was extra of a travesty however he might have missed his greatest likelihood to get onto the Period Committee poll with this final 12 months https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-08-22/kenny-lofton-accus…
3:44
Mike S: Are you docking Mauer in any respect for spending roughly 40% of his profession at 1st?  Is it unreasonable to love the careers of men like Brian McCann, Yadi Molina, Buster Posey and even Russell Martin over him as a consequence of the truth that they stayed at catcher for longer and/or for a larger proportion of their careers?
3:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: right here’s the factor: a good-hitting catcher accrues worth shortly, a light-hitting first baseman doesn’t, so it’s not as if Mauer put himself at at some benefit by transferring to first, which occurred BECAUSE OF THE REPEATED CONCUSSIONS HE SUSTAINED AT CATCHER, allow us to not neglect.

Mauer’s worth at catcher was was greater than sufficient to place him excessive. His peak rating, primarily based on his greatest seven seasons, all at catcher,  ranks fifth all-time, and he’s seventh in JAWS. We haven’t even gotten into the pitch-framing a part of the dialogue, and he was good there, although Posey, Martin, Molina, and McCann have been even higher.

3:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Okay of us, that’s my pitch depend. Thanks a lot for stopping by. Subsequent week’s availability is TBD as a result of impending commerce deadline.
3:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: However we’ll have tons of protection at FanGraphs, after all, so tune in!


 

Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Corridor of Fame voter since 2021. Comply with him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.



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